According to Bernstein analysts, China’s exports of automobiles and parts more than doubled in 2021 from a year ago, exceeding 30% of China’s total exports.
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Beijing — China’s latest blockade of Covid is at higher risk of global inflation today than it is in 2020, Bernstein analysts say.
Analysts said in a memo on April 8 that this is because the world has become more dependent on Chinese products since the pandemic began.
China’s export share of the world rose to 15.4% in 2021, the highest since at least 2012.
China’s exports have skyrocketed in the last two years. This is because China was able to curb the first Covid outbreak and resume production within a few weeks, while other parts of the world struggled to contain the virus. China maintains a zero-corona policy, but other countries relaxed regulations last year.
Over the past few weeks, mainland China has tackled the worst Covid wave in two years with a blockade and travel ban that foreign business leaders have stated to be stricter than in early 2020. Home ordering and virus testing requirements have had a particular impact on the Coastal Economic Center. Like Shanghai.
“We believe that the macro impact of China’s blockade is so great that the market could be unpriced,” Bernstein’s Jay Huang and his team said.
Compared to pre-pandemic levels, Shanghai’s export containers are five times more expensive and airfares are twice as expensive, the report said, with similar burdens on supplier delivery times. “Therefore, inflation exports, especially to China’s large trading partners, will increase, but at the same time delay China’s own recovery in demand,” he said.
Chinese electric car company reflecting supply chain turmoil Nio publication Production will stop Over the weekend, some production resumed on Thursday.German car maker Volkswagen Factories in the suburbs of Shanghai and in Jillin in the north said they remained closed until at least Thursday.
According to Bernstein’s analysis, China manufactures most of its overseas demand for containers, ships, rare earths and solar modules, along with most of its mobile phones and PCs.
The report states that the Chinese factory not only completes the final assembly of these electronic products, but also manufactures components such as LCD panels and integrated circuits, and the export of these parts will be expedited in 2021. It shows that it has grown.
China’s first-quarter trade data show that exports are growing steadily. According to data on Monday, the country’s producer and consumer price indexes rose faster than expected in March.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, China has become an important manufacturer in the automotive industry, especially in the electric vehicle supply chain, Bernstein’s report said.
Analysts noted that 2021 automobile and parts exports increased by an average of 119% year-on-year, outpacing a 30% increase in China’s total exports. The report states that the country accounts for about 74% of the world’s battery cell production.
China is the largest automobile market in the world Promote the development and purchase of electric vehicles over the past few years, primarily through subsidies. Correspondingly, foreign automakers attracted to the market Launched electric vehicle for China In the last few years.
now, Tesla, BMW and other automakers are increasingly manufacturing electric vehicles in China for export to other countries, Bernstein’s report said. According to the report, China’s state-owned automakers SAIC and Chery, including fuel vehicles, are the largest exporters of passenger vehicles from China, with growth in sales of Chinese-made vehicles to Chile, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. It points out that it is.
The report did not discuss the specific impact of Covid’s blockade on the automotive supply chain, but analysts said many Korean and Japanese automakers in 2020, when Covid forced Wuhan to blockade. He pointed out that he faced a production turmoil.
According to the China Passenger Car Association, passenger car exports in March increased 14% year-on-year to 107,000 units, and new energy vehicles accounted for 10.7%. The report noted the impact of external uncertainties and reduced exports to Europe.
China’s car exports are about According to Bernstein’s report, 3.7% of overseas car sales in 2021 increased from less than 2% in the last two years.
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.