French President Emmanuel Macron.
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president Emmanuel MacronA controversial overhaul of the national pension, driven by invalidating parliament, could finally wipe out what French leaders have been working on over the past six years, political analysts say. told CNBC.
Macron has positioned himself as a centrist politician. When aiming to take office as president in 2017, he chose to establish the Liberal Democratic Party (La Republique en Marche! was renamed Renaissance) and sought to break away from conventional conservative socialism. He opposed extremism and positioned himself as a solution to the fairly stable politics of the past.
In the 2017 and 2022 elections, he comfortably overcame the far-right challenges of Marine Le Pen, but analysts now predict a more bleak outlook for Macron, ineligible to run in 2027. ing.
President Macron’s recent decision to use special legislative powers to push for a higher retirement age is fueling wider dissatisfaction with the political system, said Professor of European Law and Economics at HEC Business School. Armin Steinbach told CNBC last week.
a poll French business channel BFM TV published earlier this month .Macron won the 2022 election with 58.5% of the support.
None of Mr Macron looks groomed, and that’s part of the problem.
Shahin Vale
Senior Fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations
Macron’s Popularity worsened by pension reform. At the end of March, nearly 70% of those polled did not approve of the president, compared with 61% at the beginning of the year.
“The bottom line is that we are definitely increasing the division in society,” Steinbach added.
Protests against the new pension law have lasted 11 days in France. The proposed law would raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 and is necessary for Macron and his government to balance the finances.
Due to insufficient parliamentary support for the reform, the French government used Article 49.3 of the Constitution. This means that laws pass through the House of Representatives without a vote. The move has angered many French lawmakers and citizens, and on Friday France’s Supreme Court is set to rule on whether the proposal complies with the country’s constitution.
When asked whether Mr Macron’s actions would boost extremist political parties, Shahin Vale, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, replied, “Yes, absolutely.”
Vallée, who served as economic adviser to Macron when he was French economy minister, added that the reforms were “polarizing” voters and would have “disastrous medium-term consequences for the French people”. .
Le Pen has spoken out against pension reform. In the 2022 election, she said she favors leaving her retirement age at 62 and lowering it to 60 for workers who started their careers before the age of 20.
no successor
In addition to potentially increasing support from extremist parties, experts note how the lack of a clear successor for President Macron could affect future elections.
“No one at Macron is groomed. That’s part of the problem,” said Vallée. [party] It’s a one-man party. “
Macron is serving his second term as president, and the French constitution does not allow him to run again in 2027.
Three spokespersons for the Renaissance Party, including Secretary-General Stéphane Sejournet, were not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
But the fact that there is no clear successor from Mr Macron’s own party may also be tactical.
“Nobody is interested in being the official successor,” Steinbach said, calling current finance minister Bruno Le Maire and former prime minister Édouard Philippe. He said that a “natural farewell” from President Macron would allow him to more easily distance himself from the incumbent’s negative ties, thus making him a potential successor when it comes to collecting votes. He argued that it would be more useful for his successor.
Vallée also said he wouldn’t be surprised if Macron took a job in the European Union after this term, adding: “It could be a great holding place, especially if Le Pen is elected in 2027. There is,” he said.
and interview Along with Politico, Macron’s best ally François Bayroux also said Macron’s participation in French politics would not end after his second mandate as president.
