After a turbulent 2022, crypto investors are trying to figure out when the next Bitcoin bull market will be.
At last week’s crypto conference in St. Moritz, Switzerland, CNBC spoke to industry insiders who have painted 2023 as the year of caution. Bitcoin Range-bound trading is expected, sensitive to macroeconomic conditions such as rising interest rates, and volatility is expected to continue. A new bull market is unlikely in 2023.
But experts are optimistic about next year and beyond.
By 2022, the entire cryptocurrency market, along with the industry, will lose approximately $1.4 trillion in value facing liquidity problems and bankruptcies concluded with The collapse of the exchange FTXThe contagion spread across the industry.
In line with risky assets such as stocks, bitcoin edged higher at the start of the year, but experts say bitcoin is unlikely to retest all-time highs just under $69,000, but bottom may have hit
Venture capitalist and cryptocurrency veteran Bill Tai told CNBC last week, “I think there are a few more downsides, but not too many.”
“There is a possibility [bitcoin] We’ve bottomed out here,” he added, adding that it could drop to $12,000 before jumping again.
CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors said Bitcoin is likely to trade at a floor between $15,000 and $20,000 and a ceiling between $25,000 and $30,000.
She said that while many of the “forced sales” that occurred in 2022 as a result of the market crash are now over, there’s not much new money coming into Bitcoin.
“I don’t think there’s a lot of forced sales left, but that’s optimistic,” Demirors told CNBC on Friday. “But again, I think the upside is pretty limited because we haven’t seen a lot of new inflows.”
Investors are also watching the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin has proven to be closely correlated with risky assets such as stocks. NasdaqThese assets are subject to interest rate changes and other macroeconomic movements by the Federal Reserve.Last year, the Fed aggressive interest rate hike It tries to curb inflation that hurts risk assets along with Bitcoin.
Industry insiders said a change in macro conditions could help bitcoin.
“There may be catalysts that we are not aware of. The macro situation and the political environment are quite uncertain and inflation continues to be very intense. I think this is new. We haven’t seen it in 30, 40 years,” said DeMillers.
“So, as people are looking to allocate cryptocurrencies into their portfolios for the new year, who knows?”
In an interview with CNBC, several industry insiders spoke about the historic Bitcoin cycle that occurs roughly every four years. Bitcoin typically hits an all-time high and then undergoes a major correction. There will be bad years, followed by years of mild recovery.
Then “halving” occurs. This is when miners, who run dedicated machines to effectively validate transactions on the Bitcoin network, see their mining rewards cut in half. Miners receive Bitcoin as a reward for validating transactions.of halved, effectively slowing down the supply of Bitcoin to the market, which occurs every four years. There are only 21 million Bitcoins in circulation.
Halvings usually precede a bull market. The next half-life is 2024.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, has called 2023 the “year of recovery” for Bitcoin, predicting it could trade between $50,000 and $100,000 in two to three years.
“You take risks, but you also believe. [bitcoin] passed. So, if the hiring is done right, in the next two to three years he could be from $50,000 to he’s $100,000 in assets,” said Scaramucci.
Meanwhile, Tai said the start of the bull market is “probably a year away” and the aftermath of the FTX collapse could last another six to nine months.
Jean-Baptiste Graftieaux, global CEO of crypto exchange Bitstamp, told CNBC last week that the next bull market could occur in the next two years, citing growing interest from institutional investors.
However, DeMillers warned that events beyond 2022 “have caused tremendous reputational damage to the industry and asset class”, adding that “it will take time for that trust to return.”