A Falcon Heavy rocket will launch the USSF-67 mission from NASA Kennedy Space Center in Florida on January 15, 2023.
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The U.S. military is raising the stakes and broadening the competition in a high-profile race for Space Force mission contracts.
Over the next few years, the Space Force will buy more rocket launches from companies than previously expected, giving more companies a chance to win potential multi-billion dollar contracts.
“This is a big deal,” Col. Doug Pentecost, deputy program executive at the US Space Force Space Systems Command, told reporters at a briefing this week.
Earlier this year, the Space Force began a process of purchasing five years’ worth of launches under a lucrative program known as National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3, which is now expanding.
The United States sees growing momentum to improve its military capabilities in space, increasing the need to nearly triple the number of launches gained in Phase 2 in 2020 in Phase 3.
“It really surprised me,” Pentecost said. “For Phase 2 he only estimated 36 missions. For Phase 3 he estimates 90 missions.”
In February, the Space Force “Investment trust” purchase strategy launched from companies. NSSL Phase 3 he divided into two groups. Lane 1 is a new approach, with lower requirements and a more flexible bidding process that will allow companies to compete for their rocket debut for years to come. Lane 2 represents the existing approach, where the Space Force plans to select a certain number of companies for missions meeting the most demanding requirements.
Pentecost said Space Force hosted an industry day in February to review the details of the program, which was attended by 22 companies. Since then, the Space Force has made many adjustments to Phase 3. We added missions, introduced a price cap, expanded lane 2, and set an annual schedule for mission allocation.
The government evaluates bids at the company’s “total valuation price” for each launch. This is divided into ‘launch services’, which means the cost of building and launching a rocket, and ‘launch services support’, which covers any special requirements the military may have for launches. The amount of Launch Service support is limited to $100 million per company per year.
“We have put in place some cost-limiting tools to keep costs from ballooning. [a situation where] Everyone gets a mission, you get a mission, you get a mission, you get a mission, and there is no real competition,” Pentecost said.
“Our industry partners all want to be number one, so we believe that will lead to competitive pricing to keep costs down,” Pentecost added.
widening lane 2
Lane 1 attracts the most bids and is expected to be awarded 30 missions, but lane 2 is the biggest showcase.
In Lane 2, the Space Force closes the most valuable contracts to launch national security satellites at the highest stakes.
“These are billion dollar things [satellite] The payload goes into its own trajectory,” Pentecost said.
Not only is Lane 2 seeing an increase in the number of missions launched (currently estimated at 58, up from 39 in February), Space Force has also decided to eventually expand the number of companies that can win prizes to three instead of limiting them to two.
Elon Musk’s Joint Venture of SpaceX and United Launch Alliance boeing and lockheed martinwas considered to be the two leading contenders for Lane 2, but now the door is open to other companies such as: Mr Jeff Bezos blue origin.
The Space Force will allocate 60% and 40% of the 51 missions to the top two bidders, respectively, and the remaining seven launches to the third-place bidder.
Regardless of where a company ranks, it must demonstrate that it can meet all lane 2 requirements. This includes launch sites on both the East and West Coasts and the ability to reach nine “reference” orbits with high accuracy. Some of them are much farther from Earth than the Lane 1 Low Earth Orbit requirement.
Asked by CNBC how many companies are developing rockets that meet these requirements by the launch deadline, a Space Force spokesman declined to specify, saying the military is “tracking a few companies” that have “extended launch capabilities to most of these orbits.”
“There are other companies that have shown interest in the past, so I hope ULA, SpaceX and Blue Origin aren’t the only ones competing,” said Col.
Securing supply
The Space Force has introduced an annual October 1 deadline for assigning missions to companies that win contracts.
Pentecost explained that the first missions would be available in October 2025, but noted that the contract does not guarantee missions and that it allows companies to protect the Space Force from delays that can occur in rocket development and flight.
“In fact, if we had a great plan for how we were going to fly, we could have won the contract.” [fiscal year] 2027. But you haven’t flown yet and I have a satellite that needs to fly within two years, so we won’t give you that mission and we’ll pass it on to someone else,” Pentecost said.
The Space Force aims to complete the call for bids by September, finalize all proposals by December, and close the contract in October 2024.
Space Force officials said a big driver was “capacity availability” because there are “a ton of other companies” looking to buy satellite launches and the Space Force needs to limit those orders.
“We wanted to make sure we inherently avoided the launch shortages that could occur if launch demand was very high and everyone had demand for launches. [buying]the price can be very high,” Melone said.
But despite that concern, Pentecost said 2026 “seems to be the sweet spot” when many companies’ rockets are finished and ready to fly. And those companies that do well will have the upper hand in NSSL Phase 3.
“If you have a flight before that, or if you plan to have a flight before that, you will have a significant edge and will be well positioned to win the best or second best provider in this race,” Pentecost said.
