For the president Xi Jinping, Dispatched his envoy to Europe The three-week charm tour was just one of many things about high stakes damage control 20 years ago.th This fall, the Chinese Communist Party Congress.
Xi’s economy is dangerously slowing, funding for his Belt and Road Initiative is stagnant, and his Zero-COVID policy is FrailingWhen His continued support of Russian President Vladimir Putin Hanging like a cloud Of the world Best national sovereign champion As the Russian war against Ukraine progresses.
Few China watchers believe Retaining Xi’s power faces serious challenges, but given the number of mistakes he has made recently, it is difficult to eliminate them altogether.So Xi isn’t anticipating the chance One of the most important gatherings of his partyA conference designed to ensure his continued domination and his position in history.
European business leaders Recent meetings When Wu Red Wave, Special Representative of the Government of China for European Affairs and Former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations.His message is Similar at all stops: Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Germany, Italy.
“Chinese want to change the tone of the story to limit the damage,” said one European business leader who asked to remain anonymous for the benefit of the Chinese business. rice field. “They understand that they are overkill.”
A businessman described Wu in fluent and fluid English as one of the smoothest, most open and intellectually agile Chinese officials he has encountered. Wu admitted that China “made a mistake” at every stage, from handling Covid-19 to “wolf warrior diplomacy” to financial mismanagement.
His trip came when concerns grew in China.Lose europe“In the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Having Finland and Sweden has changed the mood of the people enough Knock on the NATO doorAnd this week’s European Union Accept the prospect of Ukrainian candidate membership.. Wu’s visit was also like a mop-up operation after Chinese official Huo Yu Jen was unable to visit eight countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In Poland He was rejected Meeting with government officials.
Germans and their political leaders — the most important European target for Chinese diplomats and business — raise new questions about everything from investment guarantees for German business in China to specific projects like VW. increase. New construction factoryHouse Human rights violations Mainly for the Uighur population of Islam.
Wu made only an indirect reference to Putin’s war in Ukraine, but his message was designed to reassure Europeans that they were their preferred partners, not the United States. His conclusion: China has always been China, a country of increasing importance and economic opportunity for Europe.
But the lost ground in Europe is just one of many gathering problems facing President Xi. Prior to his party conventionIt will determine the country’s economy, foreign policy, and domestic agenda for the next few years.
The party convention may offer Xi a third term. This is a move following the 2018 decision to abolish the time limit. It is likely that the range of power of Xi will be revealed. write in Michael Cunningham of the Heritage Foundation is wondering if his retirement criteria guarantee a fair amount of sales so he can put his allies into a major central organization, primarily the Politburo and the Politburo Standing Committee.
However, with the finding of Congress, among Chinese experts, are we entering the “peak y” era, or “Peak China“There is increasing evidence of him and the country he represents (and his approach was to make the two inseparable). Reached the pinnacle of their influence and reputation..
Nothing determines the outcome more than how the West manages China’s economy. It is the basis of China’s widespread global influence and the Communist Party’s domestic legitimacy.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is one of the most enthusiastic China watchers everywhere. look A series of factors have weakened China’s economic outlook. This includes defaults for at least 10 Chinese real estate developers and Xi’s crackdown on China’s tech sector. This brings the market capitalization of the 10 largest technology companies in the past year to $ 2 trillion.
In addition, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has caused energy and commodity prices to skyrocket and the supply chain to scream. “Terrifying news for the world’s largest manufacturers, exporters and energy consuming economy,” Rudd said. I have written Recently published in The Wall Street Journal. In addition to this, Xi’s claim to China’s Zero-COVID strategy led to a mass blockade.
Rad Conclusion This combination of factors indicates that Xi may not be able to meet its 5.5% growth target and may be slower than the United States this year. “For Mr. Xi, failing to reach his goal would be politically disastrous,” Rudd wrote.
Economic damage management for Xi includes fiscal and financial stimulus and infrastructure spending to increase domestic demand. A Recent meetings Politburo lawmakers also proposed some relief from crackdowns on China’s technology sector.
But none of it was enough to overturn Xi’s basic sins, which was his dramatic cornerstone to the rule of a stronger state and party.
Daniel H. Rosen of the Atlantic Council, the founding partner of the Rhodium Group, is the author of the Githabul Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Claim“China cannot have both today’s nationalism and yesterday’s strong growth rate. It will have to be chosen.”
add “China’s ferocious economic miracle could quickly undermine (the Communist Party’s) ability to engage in a sustained struggle for geo-strategic control,” Craig Singleton said in this week’s foreign policy. rice field.
There isn’t much time for damage control until Xi holds a party convention at the Great Hall of the People. He is likely to get the votes he wants, but that doesn’t solve the bigger problem. It was his leadership and decision-making that created China’s challenges, and he modified his course to restore domestic economic growth, regain international momentum and avoid “peak y”. need to do it.
— — Frederick Kemp President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.